After the war, trade will be the currency war

Russian experts say that the world is returning to a commercial war and that its next move will be the fight of currencies. Recent protections on the initiative of US President Donald Trump have been added to the agenda of many countries.

Erosion of global faith At present, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is still an important body for resolving disputes, but can not guarantee fair trade conditions for all members. In this case, countries still have to rely on themselves, and Russia's position in this situation is very vulnerable. This is the conclusion of a panel discussion entitled "World Trade War: What to Expect?" At the Valdai Politics Club on April 12. According to Daria Davydova, the trade negotiator, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, since 2006, the issue of protection is one of the main issues in the WTO agenda. According to the 2016 report, member states of the organization have applied more than 3,000 protectionist measures and less than one-third of them have been removed. Ms Daria said the US is leading the pro-protection movement. The measures taken by the United States, particularly the raising of steel and aluminum taxes, are beyond the scope of the WTO. "If all countries understand that they can take them, then we will have serious problems," Daria said. Simon Eventen, a professor of economics at the University of St-Gallen, also joined the discussion on video online, claiming that global trust in the WTO has been eroded. Many large countries do not want to comply with WTO rules. According to Eventen, the United States will not leave the organization, but does not expect it to play a role in offering solutions. Eventen said that the special point in the past year was the transition from secretive protectionism to transparency. By 2018, many countries have distorted the world's trade structure to secure their interests, but did not make any statement like Washington is doing right now. Last year, Trump's main priority was tax reform. After reaching this goal, Trump embarked on a program of protection. The next will be the currency war Aleksandr Losev, General Manager of Sputnik Fund Management, said after the trade wars it would be monetary wars. This is easy to push the world into chaos, but then restore balance. Mr Losev reiterated that China is considering undervaluing the renminbi as a weapon of the trade war. For his part, Trump - a strong dollar advocate in his presidential campaign - has also begun to weaken the currency since taking over. "America is the main currency," Losev said. However, how long it will take is still unclear. The problem is that we are now witnessing a reversal of the credit cycle and that the next US interest rate hike in September will be a "rage" for many of the currency markets. " We are on the verge of a crisis similar to the Asian crisis of 1997. Russia prepared a defense plan In this situation, Russia's position is extremely vulnerable. The measures that the US has taken to protect its producers have affected Russian exports. Director of the Russian Competitiveness Research Institute Andrey Spaktak recalled that in 2017, Russia sold steel to the United States for about $ 650 million and aluminum for about $ 2 billion. On the aluminum side, the United States is a very significant market for Russia, accounting for about 30% of Russia's exports. Meanwhile, export development is one of the main drivers of the current Russian economy. US restrictions are a direct threat to Russia's development. Experts say that, with the current structure of the Russian economy, joining the trade war will lead to catastrophic consequences. To get rid of the current situation, experts have come up with the following solutions: First, increase the creativity of the economy. Focusing on development in the fields of artificial intelligence, digitization and mechanization, requires investment in science. Restore the trio of "basic science - applied science - human resources training". Second, create more favorable conditions for small businesses, including in the production line of large export-oriented companies. Third, the use of military industrial clusters as a driving force for the development of technology and job creation in related industries. Participants in the hopeful discussions on free trade agreements with countries such as China, India and Iran, the link between the Eurasian Economic Alliance and China's Silk Road Initiative , as well as strengthening

set up the North - South Transport Corridor. Finally, in their view, areas where Russia has certain achievements such as the intelligence of the transportation system as well as "security exports" can also create new positions in the world economy. .