The Syrian war has made the oil giants "distorted" to see prices rise

According to analysts, geopolitical instability is taking place in the Middle East, along with the US-Britain-France joint deployment of the attack on Syria 14/4 (Vietnam time), will resulting in large-scale economic and political consequences, not only in commodity markets, but also in the world's leading powers.

Oil, gold rises, stocks "shaky" Along with chaos in the "fire pan" Syria is the rush in the world market. In the US market, oil prices have been on the rise. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), volatility in the Middle East has helped push crude oil prices above $ 70 a barrel. WTI prices jumped 2% to $ 66.82 a barrel in April, the highest level in three years, while Brent crude rose 1.4% to $ 72 a barrel. , after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose military measures on Syria. Brent crude and light sweet crude continued to rise to $ 72.58 a barrel and $ 67.39 a barrel, marking the strongest gain since last week. 7/2016. The increase was in the calculation of economic experts. Earlier, Jim Williams, a consultant at energy consultancy WTRG Economics, estimated oil prices would be able to reach $ 60 to $ 70 a barrel if they were affected by geopolitical factors such as the war. The revolutions are likely to interfere with the oil production of major powers in this area, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Iraq, or Kuwait. According to the expert, regime change will have a lasting impact on the energy market, as is the case with Libya. Meanwhile, gold has always been considered a "safe haven" whenever world economic and political instability occurred. On April 13, gold rose 0.7 percent to $ 1,344.40 an ounce. Earlier, the precious metal even climbed to the highest level since Jan. 25 due to factors such as escalating tensions in Syria, US sanctions against Russia and war concerns. US-China relations. On the stock markets, green - red also intertwined in trading sessions last week, amid the context of investors constantly hear information about the moves of US President Trump and allies related to Syria issue. On April 11, Wall Street slumped as investors were wary of geopolitical developments in the alleged attack on chemical weapons in Syria and then regained momentum. April 12, after President Trump expressed a lessened stance on the threat of military action in Syria. However, Washington's surprise attack on Syria on April 14 will undoubtedly continue to create a stir when the markets reopen on April 16. For Syria, the World Bank estimated in July 1977 a state of multi-year conflict that has cost the economy $ 226 billion, with an average of 538,000 lost jobs each. year period from 2010 to 2015. Syria's GDP reached $ 60 billion in 2010, but this number has dropped to $ 20 billion in 2015 and $ 15 billion in 2016. In addition, the civil war has also Transforming Syria from a producer and exporter of oil now depends largely on imports. Syria's crude output has fallen from 385,000 barrels a day in 2010 to 8,000 barrels a day by 2017. These big oil giants In addition to the turbulence in the commodity markets, the consequences of the Middle East conflict have been seen in many countries, such as Russia and Iran, or Iraq - the "giants" of the manufacturing industry. world oil, because although Syria is not a major oil producer, it is located near the Strait of Hormuz - an important hub with millions of barrels of oil passing through each day, so the conflict in Syria is likely to be Affecting oil transportation. In addition, the backing of Russia and Iran over the current Syrian government is one of the reasons why the two countries are repeatedly subjected to severe punishment and economic isolation from the United States. On April 6, Washington announced the decision to impose additional sanctions on seven high-profile Russian businessmen and dozens of their companies and 17 officials. high level government. Among the sanctioned companies are Rusal, Russia's leading aluminum producer with a 9% market share globally and run by Oleg Deripaska. Consequently, after the sanctions were announced, the Russian Ruble and Rusal's share price slumped. In the past week, the world aluminum market has increased more than 10% due to concerns about the risk of supply shortages in the market. With that, analysts are also concerned that Rusal is likely to swill continue to be removed from world markets due to the impact of the US.
Economic experts say there are two possible scenarios for the Ruble in the context of US sanctions and escalating situation in Syria. The first scenario depends on the events of foreign policy and the nature of the new sanctions that can be applied against Russia. If everything is normal and not too serious, the Ruble will recover the lost value and there will be no panic buying of foreign currency, TVs, refrigerators in stores like late 2014. Another scenario and the most damaging scenario is that if the United States imposes restrictive measures on government debts of the Russian Federation. So far, experts hope in a positive scenario. Geogry Vashchenko, head of sales at the Russian stock market Fried Finance, said that the situation in the market was volatile, but not to panic.