How North America chooses before three new NAFTA versions?

Following discussions between the Ministers responsible for the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in Washington over the weekend, both the United States, Canada and Mexico are currently in the running for three new NAFTA versions.

Perfect but hard to come by The first option is to pursue a comprehensive, complete agreement that addresses all controversial issues. To do this, NAFTA member states must accept to leave the talks until 2019, after Mexico's presidential elections, the United States launches the new parliament after the mid-term elections. This is unlikely, however, as the Washington administration is increasingly pressing for a new agreement on NAFTA, possibly before the Mexican presidential election in July, or before the mid-term National Assembly elections. the US in November. President Trump said Tuesday that three-way negotiation officials have made significant progress and the new NAFTA is "pretty close." Mexican Deputy Minister of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo said he is confident that the United States, Canada and Mexico will reach a preliminary agreement on NAFTA revision in early May. However, he emphasized that this depends on the flexibility of the parties. Version "appease" The second option is that the parties reach a modest deal right now, similar to the new version of the recent US-Korea Free Trade Agreement. This choice means that there will be an incomplete NAFTA, which will only address some of the modest issues and many other issues that need further discussion. In fact, through the 7 rounds of negotiations, the negotiators of all three countries have completed only 6/33 chapter of the agreement. The thorny issues, such as automobile origin rules, auto expire after 5 years, government procurement issues, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The trade has almost no progress. Recently, however, these issues have been showing signs of optimism. The North American car localization rate is likely to be met when Mexico adjusts its minimum wage proposal. The issue of government procurement can also be addressed by allowing state governors and governors to adopt reciprocal agreements between the regions. The states and provinces responsible for infrastructure expenditures. Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said the country, along with Canada and Mexico, is approaching fairly near the goal of resolving disagreements over the future of NAFTA. According to the Mexican Minister of Economy, the US negotiating delegation is under pressure to launch a new agreement in the first week of May, 1818, to allow Congress to have sufficient time to discuss NAFTA amendments by the structure. Members in the Senate and House will change after the November 2018 election. On the other hand, as tensions continue to escalate, China is taking commercial action against the United States. If President Trump wants to gain international support to persuade China to curb steel dumping and follow international rules on intellectual property, improving relations with its neighbors Canada and Mexico have important political implications. More than ever, the United States is seeking a trade deal to ease public anxiety over tensions in US-China trade relations. With recent developments, it is likely that the three countries will agree with this second choice. It will be the most feasible option and could benefit all three NAFTA members in the current context. Hard to break The third option is the NAFTA breakdown, which means that the United States withdrew from NAFTA. Mr Trump regularly criticized NAFTA and repeatedly threatened to abolish the treaty because it was the "worst trade agreement" ever. Mexico has also stated that it is ready to withdraw from NAFTA if it is not in a mutually-beneficial deal. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also expressed his stubbornness in asserting that Canada is ready to withdraw from NAFTA if negotiations fail to reach a mutually acceptable agreement. However, until now, the version of a broken NAFTA will be most unlikely because according to analysts, the future NAFTA will depend on the US. The statements of Mexico and Canada are just trade strategies of each country.
The actual situation is that the main contributors to Trump's government are farmers, workers in the automotive industry and business. They are defending NAFTA to exist. Half of the population still wants to maintain the agreement. The US Congress is also putting pressure on President Trump, asking him to maintain NAFTA. Some US lawmakers have criticized the Trump administration for the idea of ​​withdrawing from NAFTA. Earlier, Congressman Bill Pascrell of the US House Tax and Finance Committee argued that the Trump administration might have been wrong to declare NAFTA unnecessary. Senator Sander Levin, meanwhile, said there was "no reason for the US to leave the negotiating table at this point unless it was pushed into a very bad position." So the US's withdrawal from NAFTA at the time This will not happen and this choice will not be feasible. Trump's actions make the future of NAFTA unpredictable. Although the result is an incomplete NAFTA, this is also considered a victory. North America will still be the largest trading bloc. NAFTA currently accounts for 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The intra-regional trade is expected to reach over $ 1.2 trillion in 2017, with the United States being the largest export market for both Mexico and Canada.